Challenges in Higher Education


 


 


 

A Challenging Economic Forecast for Higher Education
Colleges and universities across the country are facing tough economic headwinds. The University of Oregon is no exception.

The reasons for this are many, but especially driven by those outlined below.

 

Budget shortfalls are a national trend

Global management firm McKinsey estimates that 57% of private and 77% of public institutions are facing budget shortfalls across the nation. In early February, Maryland’s governor, Wes Moore, announced a proposed reduction of $111 million to the University System of Maryland that would cut 400 jobs to its public universities. The California university systems are facing similar futures in Governor Gavin Newsom’s budget proposal. If passed, California State University and University of California would see hundreds of millions of dollars in reduced funds.  

The ratings agency Fitch recently came out with a report describing a “deteriorating outlook” for higher education, driven by uneven enrollment, rising competitive pressures, and continued margin pressures. “Sector consolidation is likely to rise in 2025 … Even public institutions, which have long been more insulated from sector pressures, may be forced to consider drastic budgetary decisions to remain sustainable.”  

Uncertainty on federal research funding

Universities across the country continue to assess the potential impact of a number of federal actions and executive orders. On February 7, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) sent a notice that it intends to cap the rate for “indirect funding” from grants—reimbursements that cover a portion of universities’ facilities and administrative costs. If this cap – or similar actions – go forward, universities across the country stand to lose billions in biomedical funding.  The University of Oregon is among those affected. 

There are fewer young Americans of college age

According to the Centers for Disease Control, the U.S. birth rate began dropping 17 years ago — falling almost 23% between 2007 and 2022. There are simply fewer 18-year-olds in the country looking to enroll in college. This will increase competition among institutions for enrollment and impact net tuition revenue. Axios

There is increased skepticism about the value of a four-year degree

According to a recent Pew Research poll, roughly half of Americans (49%) say it’s less important to have a four-year college degree today in order to get a well-paying job than it was 20 years ago. And 34% say it’s extremely or very likely that someone without a degree could still get a well-paying job today.